Activity SeeSaws, Rates Skyrocket
By ANNE LINEBERRY
7/25/2003

Average fixed mortgage rates skyrocketed 27 basis points this week, according to Freddie Mac.

In its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the secondary lender reported the average 30-year fixed rate at 5.94 percent, up from 5.67 percent a week ago. Rates are almost back to their level in January, said Freddie chief economist Frank Nothaft. Last year's rates were averaging 6.34 percent, according to the statement.

Fifteen-year rates averaged 5.27 percent for the week, also spiking 27 basis points from their 5.00 percent level last week, the survey said. Both rates averaged 0.4 discounts.

According to statements from Freddie, the 30-year rates have been climbing for the last five weeks in a row, with the last four weeks showing double-digit basis point jumps. The 15-year rates have been shooting skyward for the last six weeks, the data shows.

"Higher mortgage rates may start to apply the brakes to the frenzy of refinancing that we are currently experiencing, Nothaft said.

The ten-year Treasury yield came in at 4.16, up 14 basis points from the previous Friday's 3.92. According to Freddie, the one-year Treasury-indexed adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 3.67 percent this week, with an average 0.5 point.

At Bankrate.com, industry experts are predicting rates will go back down. Almost half - 45 percent, said they thought rates would go down; 33 percent said they would remain the same during the next week. Twenty-two percent said they would go up.

One of those predicting even more upward movement is Greg McBride, a financial analyst for the website.

"... the June lows are a thing of the past and the upward trend will remain in force as the economy improves," he quoted to the site.

Refinances continued to tumble as a share of application activity, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America (MBA). Their Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey reported that refinances comprised 68.7 percent of all applications, down a little more than one percent for the week ended July 18. This result marks the first time since early May that the refinance as a share of applications has dropped below 70 percent, according to data released by MBA.

In the survey, the Market Composite Index closed the week at 1284.3 on a seasonally-adjusted basis, MBA said. This number marks a 73.9 point drop over the prior week. According to the survey, purchase, refinance and conventional indices all decreased, with the government index rising.

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